Alert when unshipped orders exceed what you can realistically despatch in a day, using a capacity figure measured from your own throughput rather than estimated optimistically. Every backlog is visible before it forms, and acting a day early is the difference between a long afternoon and a week of late orders and support contacts.
Why this one is worth an interruption
Backlogs compound in a way that catches teams out. Today's overflow becomes tomorrow's starting position, so a day of falling slightly behind produces a week of being visibly late, and the recovery costs far more than the original gap.
The reason nobody catches it early is that there is no event. Orders arriving faster than they leave is a rate, not an occurrence, and rates only become visible if somebody is watching for them.
The threshold
Capacity has to be a measured number. An optimistic one makes the alert fire too late to help.
| Condition | Set it to | Why that number |
|---|---|---|
| Trigger | unshipped orders above one day of measured capacity | One day of warning is enough to act |
| Capacity from | your actual throughput on normal days | Not what you managed once during peak |
| Adjust for | who is actually working that day | Capacity is people, not a constant |
| Second trigger | two days of capacity | The backlog is now real |
| Peak | recalculate before the season, not during | Your normal figure will be wrong |
Who should receive it
Whoever can add hours or change priorities today, which usually means an owner or manager.
- Whoever can bring in help or authorise overtime.
- Whoever runs the fulfilment queue, who often already knows and has not escalated.
- Whoever handles customers, on the second trigger, so support can set expectations before complaints arrive.
What to do when it fires
- Decide today, not tomorrow. A backlog acted on a day early is an afternoon; a day late is a week.
- Choose explicitly between adding hours, prioritising by service level, and telling customers.
- If prioritising, ship express and time-sensitive orders first and say so, rather than working in order received.
- Recalculate your capacity figure afterwards, because the event just gave you real data about it.
When not to set this alert
Do not set this if fulfilment is outsourced to a 3PL. Their capacity is not yours to manage, and the useful alert is their SLA rather than your queue depth.
Do not set it against an aspirational capacity number. A figure nobody has ever actually hit means the alert fires only once the backlog is already unrecoverable.
Common questions
How do I work out my shipping capacity?
Measure actual orders despatched per person per day on normal days, not a best-ever figure from a peak week. Adjust for who is genuinely working on any given day.
Why alert before the backlog forms?
Because backlogs compound. Today's overflow becomes tomorrow's starting position, so a single day of falling behind produces a week of visibly late orders.
What should I do first when it fires?
Decide the same day between adding hours, prioritising by service level, or telling customers. Deferring the decision is what turns an afternoon of extra work into a week of recovery.